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  • Training Program: Econometric Models for Probabilistic Forecasting

Training Program: Econometric Models for Probabilistic Forecasting

To be delivered by Rafael Bakhtavoryan, Ph.D.

Initiative: Baker Tilly Armenia CJSC
Date: September 19-20 or 25-26, 2013
Time: 9:00-13:00 (including coffee break)
Language: Communication – Armenian, Concepts - English
Level: Introductory/Intermediate

Course description: Forecasting is a powerful tool and is very important for a successful business decision-making in small companies as well as large corporations. In this hands-on training, the participants will learn various econometrics techniques designed to develop forecasts of the objects of interest (for example, exchange rate, interest rate, sales, costs, prices etc.). This introductory training makes a heavy use of regression-based forecasting techniques applied to various sample datasets and is geared towards business analysts who are not very familiar with the forecasting and have a basic background in statistical analysis. The distinctive feature of this training session is that it will focus on different quantitative techniques for developing deterministic (no risk) and probabilistic (risk included) forecasts. The forecasting techniques include regression-based models to capture linear and non-linear trends, seasonality, cyclical, and structural variations. At the end of this two-day training, the participants are expected to have an understanding of basic regression analysis (running and interpretation), how to build an appropriate forecasting model, and how to choose among competing models.

 Software: An Excel add-in Simetar© will be used. The License Key for the free trial copy of complete Simetar© 2011 with all the functionality and capabilities of the single user will be sent to the selected participants of the Training. The trial copy will operate on your computer for 30 days.

 Methodology: A combination of structured lectures, PowerPoint presentations, and in-class computer examples will be used. The participants will be provided with material containing the topic information beforehand. Also, the participants will be provided with ample opportunities to express their knowledge of the material and exchange ideas through interactive class participation.

About the trainer: Rafael Bakhtavoryan received his Doctorate (Ph.D.) in Economics from Texas A&M University in 2011. He currently teaches graduate courses in Econometrics for Agribusiness and Agribusiness Analysis and Forecasting for the Master of Agribusiness program offered by the Agribusiness Teaching Center. Rafael’s research interests focus on consumer demand analysis, applied econometrics, and microeconometrics. Rafael has published on such topics as Consumer Economics, Food Safety, Production Efficiency, State Regulation and the Ways of its Improvement, etc.

Thus, the visit of Rafael Bakhtavoryan into Armenia is an unprecedented event both for Baker Tilly Armenia and the beneficiaries of this Training Program.

Course outline: The Program is designed for two days. You can see the topics and schedule of the training in the Agenda attached.

Who can apply: The training is designed for business analysts and economists who have basic knowledge of regression analysis and Microsoft Excel.

Application deadline: Applications can be submitted until September 6 through the Registration Form attached. Applications submitted until August 30 will be provided with 50% discount, while the applications submitted from August 30 to September 6 - only with 40% discount.

Price of the Training Program:

40,000 AMD if submitted until August 30 – including 50% discount  
50,000 AMD if submitted from August 30 to September 6 – including 40% discount

Contacts: If you need further information, do not hesitate to contact us.


Forecasting and Risk Management As a Key Towards Successful Business Operations

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